Forecast modelled
Every chart here comes from the same 25,000 simulated seasons , with every completed game held fixed. These are forecasts, not results — which is why the whole page is cyan.
Chance of winning
How often each entry finishes first. This is the bragging-rights number, and it ignores money entirely — second place is worth exactly as little to it as last.
Penny · 16%
Expected payout
What each entry is worth in dollars: every paying place it might finish in, weighted by how often it finishes there. A steady second is worth real money; a long shot that only ever wins or busts is worth less than its odds suggest.
Eric Riggs · $39
Note that these disagree right now: Penny is likeliest to win, but Eric Riggs is the more valuable entry — they finish in the money more often, which is what actually gets paid.
Where everyone finishes
Each bar is one entry's chances across every finishing place, strongest colour for first. The bars are all the same length because the chances add to one — so you are comparing the width of the segments, not the length of the bar. Ordered by chance of winning, best first.
Percentage shown is the chance of finishing first. Hover any segment for the rest.
The range of outcomes
One curve per entry, all on the same scale, showing where their final score landed across every simulation. A tall narrow curve is a confident forecast; a low wide one could go anywhere. Where two curves sit on top of each other, the pool is genuinely close — the overlap is the point.
Head to head
Every pair in the pool, as a straight two-horse race with everybody else ignored. Read a row to see who that person is favoured against; read a column to see who is favoured against them. Every pair of opposite cells adds to 100%.
The same pairs, priced: how often the row takes home more money than the column, across the same seasons. This pool pays 3 places, so two entries can easily end a season level on money and nowhere near level on points — which is why opposite cells here can add to less than 100%. What is missing is exactly the seasons that paid the two of them the same, and $0 does not beat $0.
Tap or point at any cell to read it as a sentence, with what it is worth to both of them. A tap holds the pair; tap again to let go.
Winning, and making money
The same forecast, priced. Chance of winning is first place and nothing else; expected payout is what the entry is worth once second and third are counted too. Sorted by expected payout — click any heading to sort by that instead.
| Entrant | Chance of winning | Chance of cashing | Expected payout | Expected profit | Projected final score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Riggs | 16% | 39% | $39 | +29 | 85–112, mid 99 |
| Penny | 16% | 36% | $37 | +27 | 86–112, mid 99 |
| Asher O'Hara | 13% | 37% | $35 | +25 | 87–110, mid 99 |
| Zac | 13% | 37% | $35 | +25 | 87–110, mid 99 |
| Bob Seeley | 11% | 29% | $28 | +18 | 82–111, mid 96 |
| Jerry | 11% | 24% | $24 | +14 | 82–109, mid 95 |
| Brian Moore | 7% | 19% | $18 | +8 | 83–110, mid 96 |
| Dave Moore | 7% | 17% | $16 | +6 | 81–108, mid 94 |
| Lori Seeley | 3% | 14% | $12 | +2 | 78–106, mid 92 |
| Devin | 3% | 14% | $12 | +2 | 78–106, mid 92 |
| Sammy | 4% | 11% | $11 | +1 | 76–101, mid 88 |
| Danny | 4% | 11% | $10 | +0 | 78–106, mid 92 |
| Laura Seeley | 3% | 10% | $9 | -1 | 77–100, mid 88 |
| Tom Seeley | 3% | 7% | $7 | -3 | 75–100, mid 87 |
| Mark Seeley | 0% | 4% | $3 | -7 | 76–100, mid 88 |
| Julie | 1% | 3% | $3 | -7 | 70–95, mid 83 |
| Madison | 0% | 2% | $2 | -8 | 70–96, mid 83 |
| Paul Moore | 0% | 1% | $1 | -9 | 67–89, mid 78 |
| Shannon (plus Si & Rachel) | 0% | 1% | $1 | -9 | 68–93, mid 80 |
| Caroline Seeley | 0% | 1% | $1 | -9 | 58–81, mid 69 |
| JuJu Grands | 0% | 1% | $1 | -9 | 64–88, mid 75 |
| Brenda Moore | 0% | 1% | $0 | -10 | 66–89, mid 77 |
| Ben | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 65–89, mid 77 |
| Leah | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 62–87, mid 74 |
| Sadie | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 56–79, mid 67 |
| Linda | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 51–73, mid 62 |
| Eli | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 57–78, mid 67 |
| Blaine | 0% | 0% | $0 | -10 | 54–76, mid 65 |
The model fits team ratings to the market's preseason win totals and plays the rest of the season out 25,000 times. No lines are posted for the remaining games yet, so August's numbers are still the best read available. It knows nothing about the leveling factors beyond the fact that they are what turns a team's wins into your points — the odds have no bearing on how anyone is actually scored.