FloorFloorThe lowest this entry can still finish on: everything banked, plus anything left that they cannot avoid scoring.
47.70
45.55 banked plus 2.15 your own
teams must win off each other
Next week 9
≤ 0.00
nothing guaranteed
CeilingCeilingThe highest this entry could still finish on — every remaining game won by the team you want, and the best possible January. It is a limit, not a forecast; nobody finishes on their ceiling.
157.55
every remaining game plus the best possible January
Still on the tableStill on the tableCeiling minus floor: how much of this entry's finish is still genuinely undecided.
109.85
ceiling minus floor
Projected finish modelled
Winning and making money are two different questions here, and they do not
always give the same answer.
Chance of winningChance of winningHow often this entry finishes first across every simulated season. This is the chance of winning the pool outright — it is not the chance of making money, which is a much easier bar.
11%
first place outright
Chance of cashingChance of cashingHow often this entry finishes somewhere that pays — the top 3. An entry can be very likely to cash and still unlikely to win, which is why both numbers are on the page.
29%
finishing in the top 3, which is what pays
Expected payoutExpected payoutThe average of what this entry gets paid across every simulated season — each prize weighted by how often they finish in that place. It is a long-run average and not a cheque anybody will ever be handed: the real outcome is one of the actual prizes, or nothing at all.
$28
average winnings over every simulated season
Expected profitExpected profitExpected payout minus the $10 entry. Positive means the entry is worth more than it cost. Across the whole pool these add up to zero, because the pot is exactly what everyone paid in — one entry only shows a profit at another's expense.
+18
payout less the $10 entry
Projected final scoreProjected final scoreWhere this entry's final total landed across every simulated season: the middle of the range, and the band that eight seasons out of ten fell inside.
96
82–111
in eight seasons out of ten
Where Bob Seeley finishes
chance of each place, first on the left
Favoured againstHead to headHow often one entry finishes above another with everybody else ignored. It is a straight two-horse race, so a pair of opposite cells always adds to 100%.
How often Bob Seeley finishes above each of the others, ignoring
everybody else. Sorted from the rival they beat most often to the one
they beat least.
From 25,000 simulated seasons, with every completed
game held fixed. A forecast, not a result.
Season so far
cumulative points, week 1 to 9
The field
Gap to Bob Seeley, and whether they can still be caught. In
standings order, leader first.
#
Entrant
BankedBankedPoints already scored, from games that have finished. Nothing here is projected, and nothing here can be taken away.
Gap
Their ceilingCeilingThe highest this entry could still finish on — every remaining game won by the team you want, and the best possible January. It is a limit, not a forecast; nobody finishes on their ceiling.